Hurricane Sandy/Coastal Storm Official Forecasts Archives

[Pfishingruven]

Governor Christie has declared a State of Emergency for the entire state of NJ.  This joins all surrounding states on the East Coast here.

NJ State of Emergency

[Pfishingruven]

There is a MANDATORY Evacuation of ALL barrier islands, including Atlantic City.  All access to barrier islands will be shut off at 4pm tomorrow!

[fellinger]

There is a MANDATORY Evacuation of ALL barrier islands, including Atlantic City.  All access to barrier islands will be shut off at 4pm tomorrow!

It's getting serious up in here! Please head the warnings. Us in emergency services HATE rescuing stupid people who refuse to leave when they've had adequate warning to help themselves.

Pride is strong. Hurricanes are stronger!

[Hunter 2]

There is a MANDATORY Evacuation of ALL barrier islands, including Atlantic City.  All access to barrier islands will be shut off at 4pm tomorrow!

   Wow

[IKAT]

There is a MANDATORY Evacuation of ALL barrier islands, including Atlantic City.  All access to barrier islands will be shut off at 4pm tomorrow!

   Wow

YEA Eddie

I think this is just  CRAP--not one mention about peoples lives after the CG spot.

[HookedupND14]

this is a crazy storm cell coming through ,  hope everyone is prepared ,  cape may county mandatory evac ,  if anyone is wondering what that means basically what the state police will do is shut down the parkway SOUTH around exit 17 so if u need to get down to your boat or house after today .. take the back roads ..   

[Pfishingruven]

There are really no big changes to report with the 5PM Advisory.  Sandy is basically unchanged in strength, speed or direction.  The track has been adjusted yet again, back across Cape May County and then inland.  Storm surges are looking around the same at 5-8 feet or so.  **A note here, media agencies are reporting a 10 foot storm surge.  While this is possible, this is not what the models are showing and this is not the official forecast.  A total of 10 feet of water over Mean Lower Low Water is correct, but there is normally a 3-5 foot high tide mark in those numbers.





The NWS has issued several Warnings for the area at this time:

Tropical Storm Warning

Storm Warning

Coastal Flood Warning

You may see various different type of Warnings and Watches posted.  Just know that there will be wind, rain, flooding and storm surge.  What the NWS wants to call it is up to them.  There is a lot of confusion(which is RIDICULOUS) among the NWS because of the change from tropical to post tropical.  Some locations have Hurricane Watches and Warnings, some have Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings while other area offices are going with generalized wind and flood watches/warnings.  Regardless of what they call it, you know what to expect.

I will update later tonight.  Pretty much a waiting game now...

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Briefing Package #7

[Pfishingruven]

Not many changes with the 8PM or 11PM Advisory.  Sandy is still at 75mph moving NE/40 degrees at 14mph with a central pressure of 960mb.  The track has shifted north into the greater Atlantic City area for landfall.  Storm surge forecast is down slightly for the areas and the models have backed off of the bullish pressures they were forecasting at landfall.  The GFS is calling 954mb, the Euro 947mb and the NAM at 960mb.  Sandy is tied as the second largest tropical cyclone with a radius to the northeast side of 450 miles.  Sandy is also setting up to be a left sided storm...unlike what I mentioned earlier with most of the rain on the east and northeast side, this storm has most of the rain on the west and southwest side of the storm.  This could change, but the models are agreeing with this as well.  This will limit the total rainfall for the east side of the storm, which is good for most of NJ, NY, PA.  Being non-tropical will also limit the amount of moisture flowing in and being pulled into the east and northeast side.

There is not much else to report.  Watches and Warnings will continue throughout the event.  This storm should not have thunderstorms or severe weather associated with it.  This means no tornadoes that are so common with tropical systems moving onshore.  At some point this will go from forecasting to nowcasting event sometime tomorrow evening.  Expect rain and some gustier winds as a preview of what's to come for tomorrow during the day.







Here is a neat website at the NWS if you live along any rivers.  You can click on the monitoring station and it will give you observations and forecasts as well as flood stages.  If you are near a river check it out!

NWS River Monitoring

Hopefully, everyone is prepped and ready.  Be safe and smart.

Updates to follow.

[paul-e]

That forecast is better news. Let's hope.

[BigAl13]

That forecast is better news. Let's hope.

  

[njbob49]

Everyone please stay safe. No material thing is worth risking your life. I canceled a business trip to Philadelphia, so will be home to ride this out. I live on a hill, so not worried about flooding, just losing power. I have enough food, beer, wine, blackberry brandy, cigs and miscellaneous helpers so should be fine for a few days. I just have to go get some ice this afternoon to put in the coolers in case I need to store some food if I lose power.

The new forecast calls for less rain in NNJ, but anyone along the coast is in for some very serious flooding as the water will pile up as we go through the next few days. This is the most current marine forecast.

ANZ450-451-281915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
335 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

TODAY
NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO
12 FT...BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN. VSBY 1 TO
3 NM...DECREASING TO 1 NM OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT
NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT. SEAS
12 TO 17 FT...BUILDING TO 14 TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS...INCREASING TO 1 TO 3 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MON
NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT. SEAS 13 TO
18 FT...BUILDING TO 15 TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. VSBY 1 NM
OR LESS.

MON NIGHT
N WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...BECOMING SE 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 65 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS.

TUE
SE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 KT...BECOMING S
25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO
19 FT. SHOWERS. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

TUE NIGHT
S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SEAS
12 TO 17 FT...SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

WED
SW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
9 TO 12 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

Tight Lines and stay safe,
Bob G

[Still Running]

The news is reporting the Shrewsbury river is on Rt 36 already and we are 36 hours before the storm. 

[njbob49]

Here are 2 sites to view the ocean.  I know they have been posted before, but in case you missed that, enjoy the view. NJsurfer is in Monmouth Beach and updates every 5 minutes. The surfers view has cams from Cape May up to the Rockaways in NY. The only pain with this site is you have to refresh after about 90 seconds of viewing.

http://www.njsurfer.com/

http://thesurfersview.com/

Tight Lines,
Bob G  

[Capt. Carl]

Bahrs landing fuel dock is already under water at high tide

[Mbailey33]

Got a helpful hint from a family member down in Florida that has been thru many hurricanes.

They said take Gallon storage bags (the zip type) Fill them 1/2 to 2/3rds of the way with water and pack your freezer with them. (i would imagine you would want to remove as much air as you can.

Due to the water being in bags, it will form itself around the items in your freezer, and you will be able to fit quite a few. Not only have you given yourself a ready supply of clean drinking water if needed....but if you do loose power the frozen bags of water will help keep your food cold till power is restored.

Im doing a test run now to make sure the bags dont break......1 with no air, 1 with a little air.....ill post up in a couple hours to let you know how it worked out.......

[Pfishingruven]

Sandy is currently at 75mph, moving NE/40 degrees at 10mph with a central pressure of 951mb.  Storm surge forecast is slightly higher today, back to the 6-8 feet rise.  Models are still not intensifying the storm much more.  We will just have to wait and see...models are extremely bad for forecasting intensity.  Rainfall totals have decreased by a couple of inches.  Track has moved north, with a landfall on Ocean County as a post tropical hurricane with hurricane force winds.  Models have show winds around 100mph.  So, the area will see 75-80mph winds with higher gusts. Multiple Warnings are in effect for wind and flooding.  Wave height guidance has increased for the coast with 18 foot waves for the Barnegat Inlet, 37+ foot waves midshore to offshore and still 15 foot surf.  Coastal flooding has already occurred in many areas with ocean and bay waters already over roadways and boardwalks.

Today, winds and rains will increase.  Coastal waters will continue to rise and flooding conditions may be felt way ahead of the main event!  At the end of this high tide cycle, there is low to moderate flooding already with 3 more high tide cycles to go during the duration of the storm.

Nothing more that can be done, except ride out this storm and follow its progress.  Now is the time to get out if you need to evacuate or are being threatened with flooding.  Many roads will likely be impassable by later tonight!

Stay Safe!!











NWS NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings

NWS PA Advisories, Watches & Warnings

[Pfishingruven]

Got a helpful hint from a family member down in Florida that has been thru many hurricanes.

They said take Gallon storage bags (the zip type) Fill them 1/2 to 2/3rds of the way with water and pack your freezer with them. (i would imagine you would want to remove as much air as you can.

Due to the water being in bags, it will form itself around the items in your freezer, and you will be able to fit quite a few. Not only have you given yourself a ready supply of clean drinking water if needed....but if you do loose power the frozen bags of water will help keep your food cold till power is restored.

Matt, this is great info!  It definitely helps.  I did this for Irene and kept my freezer frozen for about 18 hours longer than it should have.

Another thing...if you run the risk of losing water.  Fill the bathtub up, that way you have water for flushing and washing!

[Hunter 2]

11.5 foot Surge will be devistating in our area. 

[Pfishingruven]

11.5 foot Surge will be devistating in our area. 

Yes, 6 1/2 feet over normal high tide and 11 1/2 feet over MLLW is going to be destructive and historic!