Hurricane Sandy/Coastal Storm Official Forecasts Archives

[ped579]

They are forecasting 15' swells reaching the beach every 15 seconds.  Not god...

[ped579]

At this time we are getting higher winds of 12mph gusting to over 18mph out of the NE.  Barometer is 29.77 and falling.

There is a definite change form this morning.  We are all hunkered down and as ready as we ever will be.  All my radio equipment is working , I will be on the air shortly with the National Hurricane Watch net.  Lets see if all the antennas stay up through the storm.

Paul

[Pfishingruven]

Here is a graphic of the Storm Surge with a zoomed in view of NJ.  Key under first graphic is the same for the second graphic.

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Weather Briefing Package #8

[Pfishingruven]

NJ low tides are wrapping up and heading into high tides again.  Low tides were an average of 2.5-3.5 feet higher than normal.

[Pfishingruven]

Pretty much sums up this storm

000
NOUS41 KPHI 281841
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-291200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA...

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION.
THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE
BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS
FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

SOME IMPORTANT NOTES...

1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO.

2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE
OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO
IT AGAIN.

3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT
THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU
MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE
RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR
RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE.

4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR
PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS
ZERO FATALITIES.

5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE!

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

NWS PHI Public Information Statement

[Pfishingruven]

Although Sandy will bring less rainfall than most tropical storms, they are still calling for 6-12 inches.  This is still enough to cause some flash flooding and inland flooding conditions.  Take a look at this link and check the county you reside in for the amount of rain needed to cause flash flooding conditions over a set amount of time 1, 3, 6 or 12 hours.

NWS Flash Flood Guidance

Flash FLood Guidance NJ

If anyone needs help finding the information, let me know.

Thanks,
Matt

[Pfishingruven]

Sandy is currently 75mph winds moving NE/50 degrees at 15mph with a central pressure of 952mb.  Track is back to southern NJ.  Storm surges are up about 1/2 feet at the 5PM Advisory.  Rain bands are starting to show in NJ with wind gusts over 50mph in southern areas.  Water levels are already 5-6 feet above MLLW.  Some areas already have moderate to major coastal flooding.  Conditions will continue to deteriorate with the passing of time.  Here are some graphics and a link to a satellite taking 1 minute images of Sandy around the clock.

Be safe!








GOES 14 Satellite Images of Sandy

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Briefing Package #9

[BigAl13]

Matt in caparison to irene what was the tidal surge for the her

[Pfishingruven]

Matt in caparison to irene what was the tidal surge for the her

Hurricane Irene's max surge was only 6.2 feet and that was in NC.  For this area 2-5 feet with 11.27 inches of rain, 40-50mph winds with gusts to 60+mph.  Completely different beast too, but gives you a reference.

 

[BigAl13]

Matt in caparison to irene what was the tidal surge for the her

Hurricane Irene's max surge was only 6.2 feet and that was in NC.  For this area 2-5 feet with 11.27 inches of rain, 40-50mph winds with gusts to 60+mph.  Completely different beast too, but gives you a reference.

 

         Irene                        Sandy

Rain    11.27"                      11" locally
Surge   6.2'                        11.5' +
wind    50mph w/60 mph gust         60mph w/75 gusts


            


Soory for the emoticon overload but it tells the story

[Pfishingruven]

Sandy still has 75mph winds, moving NE/35 degrees at 14mph with a central pressure of 950mb.  Sandy should start making that northwest turn into NJ.  Track keeps moving, but it is looking more and more like a central to southern NJ landfall.  Winds have picked up quite a bit over the entire area with bands of rain moving onshore.  There is a lot of flooding in the moderate to major category already throughout coastal NJ.  Power outages are very low right now.

Be safe!




NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings

[ChrisL]

Matt, what's the tanning index for today?

[Pfishingruven]

Matt, what's the tanning index for today?

Great index today.  Better beach day, as long as you can find some beach to tan on !


Morning update coming up...I'll wait until 11AM Advisory.  Nothing really new.  In the grips of Sandy and she's starting to squeeze tighter.  Weather News Headlines is the major and record breaking flooding and the lack of evacuations along the coast.  People want out now!

[Pfishingruven]

It is becoming a reality, quickly, the extent and strength of this storm.  Some notable changes this morning.  Sandy now has 90mph sustained winds moving NNW/330 degrees at 18mph.  She is making the turn for our coast.  Central pressure is down to 943mb, under what the models were predicting.  The storm has intensified quite a bit over just a few hours and may strengthen a bit more when interacting with the very strong front west of the area.  Storm surge guidance is up some.  There is a 10% chance the Raritan Bay, New York Harbor and Raritan River could see a 15+ foot storm surge NHC Storm Surge Guidance .  Places have already seen 2-3 inches of rain, so the inland and flash flooding threat is still there as well.  Winds will continue to increase.  Most areas in NJ are seeing 20-40mph sustained winds with gusts over 60mph.  In just the few minutes that I am writing this, the sustained winds have increased in Toms River.  Coastal flooding is the biggest news, with most areas see major or record breaking flooding already.  Many people who did not evacuate are in grave danger right now!  The track is going to be central or southern NJ for landfall and possibly up the Delaware.  This is bad news for western NJ and eastern PA!

Continue to expect high winds, even hurricane force along the coastal areas with high gusts.  Coastal flooding will continue with 15-18 foot waves along the coast.  Rain will be heavy at times and then lessen between bands, but we could still see another 4-10 inches.

NHC Sandy Advisory

Nothing else to do except sit back and watch history in the making.  There are lots of places to watch the progress from webcams to buoys and weather stations.  Have an emergency ditch plan, just in case water rises or hazardous conditions occur at the location you are sheltering in.

I am impressed by the preparedness and precautions taken by this group!  It speaks for itself and I am not surprised at all.  If only others modeled their actions after this group...

Be safe...STAY ALERT, STAY ALIVE!



NJ Advisories, Watches & Warnings









Sandy Hook Storm Surge

Atlantic City Storm Surge

Cape May Storm Surge

Philadelphia Storm Surge

[Pfishingruven]

NWS PHI Briefing Package #10

[Pfishingruven]

Sandy is still at 90mph, moving NNW/305 degrees at 28mph now.  Pressure is down to 940mb.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1
WEST.  SANDY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...
44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY EARLY EVENING.

REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING WELL INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL
OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. A WEATHERFLOW INSTRUMENT
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A
GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.
ALSO...A UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT BUOY LOCATED IN WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61
KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AT A HEIGHT OF 10 FEET
ABOVE THE WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 300 AND 400 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ped579]

My barometer here in the house took a dramatic drop it is now at close to 950Mbs.

[Luna Sea 5]

Got a helpful hint from a family member down in Florida that has been thru many hurricanes.

They said take Gallon storage bags (the zip type) Fill them 1/2 to 2/3rds of the way with water and pack your freezer with them. (i would imagine you would want to remove as much air as you can.

Due to the water being in bags, it will form itself around the items in your freezer, and you will be able to fit quite a few. Not only have you given yourself a ready supply of clean drinking water if needed....but if you do loose power the frozen bags of water will help keep your food cold till power is restored.

Im doing a test run now to make sure the bags dont break......1 with no air, 1 with a little air.....ill post up in a couple hours to let you know how it worked out.......

I would think only fill them half way or 3/4 and give room for expansion.. or the bags will bust.  great idea..

Since we are fisherman, and coolers are out best friend, I filled 3 of them with ice in case needed.  Since its cool outside, this should last a week.