NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Jun 24-28, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

After a nice stretch of sunny, dry days and seasonably comfortable temperatures, this week will be very unsettled.  As a Bermuda High settles in off the Southeast Coast of the US it will pump hot and humid air into the region.  There is a chance of scattered or isolated showers and thunderstorms all week, especially in the afternoon and evening hours with Thursday Night and Friday having the greatest chances at any rain or storms.  High temperatures inland will be in the low 90's (maybe pushing to mid 90's in places) and then the upper 80's at the end of the week.  Along/on the water temperatures will still push the low to mid 80's all week.  Add the high humidity into the equation and heat indices could easily reach a 100 degrees or more this week.  Overnight lows will only make it into the upper 60's and low 70's with even more humid air at nights.  This is definitely an "A/C Alert" week!  Water conditions will vary by location this week.  With a continued southerly flow, increased swells could hit SCA criteria.  However, for bays and rivers, water conditions look good all week.  Inshore waters look good except for Friday winds and seas could reach Small Craft Advisory levels.  In general, SW winds to 15 knots and seas 2-4 feet at 6 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore is going to be tough all week with Thursday looking like the only non SCA day.  SW winds to 25 knots and seas 5-8 feet at 6 seconds.  Chances of patchy fog in the overnight into the morning hours with visibility down to 1-3 nm or less.  Water temperatures have dropped just slightly with the southern swell.  Surf conditions look normal to moderate with SW winds to 15 knots and 2-4 foot waves with a Low to Moderate Risk for rip currents this week due to an increasing southerly swell.

This weekend looks more unsettled than this week, with a cold front pushing through on Saturday and Sunday.  High temperatures will still be in the mid to upper 80's with lows in the mid 60's.  Chance of rain/thunderstorms right now.  Water and surf conditions look good at this point.  This will all likely change, but gives you a rough idea where we are at.  As always, I will have daily updates with daily conditions and daily changes to the ever changing forecasts.  Have a great week!

A Bermuda High Pressure System will remain off the Southeast US Coast throughout this week.  A backdoor cold front will try and drop southward into the area on Wednesday and Thursday before moving back, northward.

Monday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance isolated thunderstorms during the day, 40% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 90's (very humid)
Low:   Upper 60's
UV Index:  Very High 10/10
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:29pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  30% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms during the day, 20% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low 90's
Low:   Low 70's
UV Index:  Very High 10/10
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:29pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Wednesday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Low 90's
Low:   Upper 60's
UV Index:  Very High 10/10
Sunrise: 5:29am
Sunset: 8:29pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Excellent
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Thursday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  40% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms during the day, 50% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80's
Low:   Low 70's
UV Index:  Very High 10/10
Sunrise: 5:30am
Sunset: 8:29pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Very Good
Weather2Hunt.com- 43/50

Friday
Sky:   Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  50% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorms
Temperatures
High:   Upper 80's
Low:   Upper 60's
UV Index:  Very High 9/10
Sunrise: 5:30am
Sunset: 8:29pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather- Fair
Weather2Hunt-  43/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday
Wind:  SW 5 knots becoming W 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less increasing to 1-2 feet in the afternoon, Patchy Fog in the morning with visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  W 10-15 knots becoming SW 5-10 knots in the late evening
Seas:  1-2 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less, Patchy Fog after midnight with visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots increasing 10-15 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less increasing to 1-2 feet in the afternoon, Patchy Fog in the early morning with visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots diminishing 5-10 knots by late evening
Seas:  1-2 feet diminishing to 1 foot or less by late evening, Patchy Fog late at night and early morning with visibility 1-3 nm
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                             



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  68°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
 Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 8 to 11 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
 Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: WNW 11 to 14 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: WNW 7 to 10 knots
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: S 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 second
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-4 feet

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:
Monday
Wind:  WSW 8-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less, Patchy Fog in the morning
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 6-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 7-11 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 7-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 8-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-9 knots diminishing to 5 knots or less after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5-8 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  70°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 17 knots
Seas: SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: W 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  SSE 4 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  SSE 2 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 12 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSE 3 feet at 6 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 16 to 21 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 16 to 22 knots
Seas:  SSE 5 feet at 7 seconds
Surf:  2-3 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Patchy Fog in the early morning with visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  SW 10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  W 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  SW 10-15 knots
Seas:  2-3 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  1-2 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  67°F
Monday Morning
Winds: WSW 13 to 17 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Monday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: WSW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  SSW 5 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 4 feet at 6 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
Winds: SW 15 to 20 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
Winds: W 14 to 19 knots
Seas:  S 6 feet at 7 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: W 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  S 5 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: SSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 7 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: S 12 to 16 knots
Seas:  S 3 feet at 6 seconds
Friday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SW 18 to 24 knots
Seas:  S 7 feet at 7 seconds
Friday Afternoon
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: SSW 20 to 27 knots
Seas:  S 8 feet at 7 seconds

Sea Surface Temperatures



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[fluke - u]

 ...thanks bud....

[Pfishingruven]

It is muggy already this morning with clear and sunny skies.  Today will be mostly dry with a chance of isolated "pop-up" storms across the state.  At only 9AM most locations are seeing upper 70's to low 80's temperatures already with humidity in the 80%-90%.  Temperatures will continue to climb into the 90's inland with mid 80's along/on the water.  Humidity will actually decrease a little by midday, however heat indices could easily make temperatures feel in the upper 90's to 100's today.  Lows will only make it down into the upper 60's tonight with humidity back into the 80%'s.  There is a Air Quality Alert for all NJ Counties except those part of the NWS NYC in Northeastern NJ.  NYC has also issued a Heat Advisory for the 5 Boroughs.  Today is a day to stay cool and well hydrated and to keep an eye on those with health conditions, the elderly, the young and pets.  Here is a link from the NWS about Heat & Heat Illnesses .

Water conditions look good today.  Raritan Bay has W/SW winds at 5 knots increasing in the afternoon with gusts to 20 knots and seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay has SW winds 8-10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay has SW winds 5-10 knots with seas 1-2 feet.  Inshore waters have WSW/SW winds 10-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet at 6-9 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore has WSW winds to 20 knots and seas 4 feet at 5-6 seconds.  A southern swell will continue today.  Remember, areas affected by thunderstorms could see higher winds and waves!

Surf & Beach looks good today with normal conditions and a Low Risk for rip currents.  Winds SW 10-15 knots with waves 3 feet at 6 seconds.  UV Index Very High at 9/10.  

Tomorrow looks like a repeat of today all around!

Have a good day and stay cool...

[Pfishingruven]

NWS Heat Index Calculator

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Mesoscale Discussion for Southwestern NJ.  There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail.  A Watch will not likely be issued.  So be alert for severe thunderstorms!

SPC MD #1201

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has issued a Slight Risk severe weather with thunderstorms across the state.  The main threat will be damaging winds and hail.  Any thunderstorm could bring gusty winds, dangerous lightning and heavy rains.

Be safe!

[Ms Fish]

Thanks!!!! I think all the stuff you post is neat and interesting!  We all do!  I know I said it before but the different/new charts are sooo cool!  Keep it up!! My favorite is the weekend reports....OH OH and ofcourse next week for the fireworks!!! I'm off a few days too, so help a sister out  Light wind, Sun and no rain. Please!  Lemon Shots on me if you can pull that off!   

[Pfishingruven]

Thanks!!!! I think all the stuff you post is neat and interesting!  We all do!  I know I said it before but the different/new charts are sooo cool!  Keep it up!! My favorite is the weekend reports....OH OH and ofcourse next week for the fireworks!!! I'm off a few days too, so help a sister out  Light wind, Sun and no rain. Please!  Lemon Shots on me if you can pull that off!   

 

[Pfishingruven]

Some storms are already popping up in Central NJ and to our West in PA.

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has decided to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10PM for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Goucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Sussex & Warren Counties.

Stay Alert, Stay Alive!

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #355

[Pfishingruven]

[Pfishingruven]

Sorry, this is a little late this morning...today looks like a repeat of yesterday.  Another heat wave moving in....A hazy, hot and humid day with mostly sunny conditions and an occasional cloud this morning into the afternoon.  Clouds will build or move in throughout the day.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90's inland with heat indices reaching the upper 90's to 100's.  Along/on the water will see low to mid 80's.  Overnight lows will only make it into the low 70's.  There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms today, all day, but more likely in the afternoon to evening hours.  The SPC has placed our area at a Slight Risk for Severe Weather today with damaging winds and hail the main threat along with dangerous lightning and heavy rains.

Water conditions look good for all locations however today will be windier with short wind chop waves today.  Raritan Bay will see SW winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots and seas 1-2 feet with visibility 1-3 nm at times due to storms.  Barnegat Bay will see WSW winds 10-12 knots with seas 1-2 feet.  Delaware Bay will see SW winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots and seas 1-2 feet.  Inshore waters will see SW/WSW winds 10-15 knots and seas 2-3 feet at 6 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will see WSW winds 10-15 knots up to 18 knots and seas 4 feet at 6 seconds.

Beach & Surf conditions look normal with SW winds 10-15 knots and wave heights around 3 feet with a Low Risk of rip currents.  UV Index Very High at 9/10.

Enjoy the day and be alert for any pop-up storms!

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has increased the Severe Weather Risk for parts of our state.  Main threats will be from multicluster storms bringing damaging winds, dangerous lightning and heavy rains.  There is also a risk of hail and tornadoes cannot be ruled out from any cells that become supercells.

[Pfishingruven]

The SPC has upgraded the Severe Weather Risk for tonight into the overnight.  Storms are likely to produce damaging winds as the main threat!  Hail and tornadoes cannot be ruled out, either, especially in areas in central and southern NJ.

[Pfishingruven]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #367 for Southern & Western NJ as well as DC, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Virginia

NJ Counties include Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester & Salem as well as Coastal Waters

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #367

[Pfishingruven]

As though we haven't had enough storms this week already there is a threat of Severe Weather for Wednesday & Thursday.

[rugman]

I love a good storm .They keep going around Ringwood latly

[Pfishingruven]

Pretty much a repeat of the last few days...hazy, hot and humid.  High pressure is controlling the area with some fronts to the north and west.  Overall, sunny skies today with some variable cloudiness.  Clouds will continue to build throughout the day.  There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms again all day today, more likely in the afternoon to evening hours with the conditions weakening quickly after sunset.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe.  The SPC has issued a Slight Risk for NJ for scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning and heavy rains.  This will be one of those hit or miss days again and not everyone will see widespread storms.  High temperatures are again into the low 90's inland with mid 80's along/on the water.  There is a Heat Advisory for Mercer, Gloucester, Camden & Burlington Counties and also for bordering PA areas including Philadelphia.  Lows will only drop to the mid 70's tonight.  SW winds around 5-10 mph will increase to 10-15 mph this afternoon keeping that southerly flow going.

Water conditions are rated good today for all locations, however winds will pick up in the afternoon and seas will have short chop, wave winds at around 6 seconds across ocean waters.  Raritan Bay will have SW winds to 10 knots with seas 1 foot or less.  Patchy fog possible after midnight with visibility 1-3 nm.  Barnegat Bay will have WSW winds to 11 knots with seas around 2 feet.  Delaware Bay will have SW winds to 10 knots increasing to 15 knots this afternoon with seas 2-3 feet.  Water temperatures for bays and rivers are in the mid to upper 70's in areas.  Inshore waters will have SW/WSW winds to 15 knots with seas 2-3 feet at 6 seconds.  Winds and seas will be the highest this afternoon.  Inshore water temperatures are in the mid 60's to low 70's.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have W/WSW winds to 18 knots and seas 4 feet at 6 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore water temperatures are in the upper 60's.

Surf & Beach looks good today.  SW/W winds to 15 mph today in the afternoon.  Right now winds are calm to 5 mph out of the W/WSW.  Surf will be normal at 1-2 feet increasing to 2-3 feet in the afternoon with a Low Risk of rip currents.  **Something I want to clarify...just because there is a Low Risk of rip currents does not mean that there is no risk or no rip currents, so you still need to be alert and swim smart.  UV Index is Very High at 9/10 with water temperatures in the mid 60's to low 70's.

Have a great day!  Stay alert for any severe weather.  Tomorrow's forecast looks unchanged except for the possibility of some SCA's conditions in the afternoon.  Friday is also looking like SCA's all day for all locations!

[Pfishingruven]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for NJ including Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Mercer, Ocean & Salem Counties as well as surrounding Coastal Waters until 10PM EDT!

A Watch means conditions are favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, hail, dangerous lightning, heavy rains.

Be alert this afternoon into the evening and have a way of receiving any additional Watches or Warnings.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 373

[ped579]

I've been watching the front start to build already...