NJ Fishing & Boating Weather Outlook: Week Edition Aug 12-16, 2013

[Pfishingruven]

A decent week coming up, even though it will start out unsettled through Tuesday Night/early Wednesday Morning.  Monday through Tuesday will bring chances of rain and thunderstorms.  Monday will be mainly isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms with Tuesday bringing the greatest chances for more widely scattered or widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Rain and storms could carry over into Wednesday early morning as well.  Some of the storms on Monday and Tuesday could be strong to severe with damaging winds, possible hail, frequent lighting and heavy rains.  Wednesday through Friday will be dry with more sun than clouds.  High temperatures will start off on Monday and Tuesday in the mid to upper 80's inland with low 80's along/on the water and in northern areas.  Overnight lows on Monday will be in the mid 60's to low 70's.  This will be moister air with dew points in the upper 60's and 70's making for moderately to higher humidity.  By Wednesday drier and cooler air will move in with high pressure from the north.  High temperatures on Wednesday through Friday will be in the upper 70's to low 80's inland and mid to upper 70's along/on the water and across northern areas.  Overnight lows for Tuesday through Friday will be range from the mid 50's across northern areas and higher elevations to mid 60's along/on the water.  Drier air will move in with the high making dew points in the upper 50's to mid 60's making humidity much more comfortable.  Water conditions are rated good all week for all locations except for Offshore late Tuesday into Wednesday Morning with cautious conditions.  With a passing cold front winds could gust to 20 knots with some building seas, especially Offshore and again possibly on Friday.  However, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria inshore to midshore.  A southerly flow will persist through Tuesday.  Water temperatures are the same or slightly warmer in some areas.  Bays and rivers are still in the upper 70's to low 80's, Inshore ocean waters are in the mid 70's, Midshore to Offshore waters are in the mid to upper 70's and surf temperatures are in the low 70's.  Inshore and surf temperatures could feel the effects of the southerly flow with some upwelling.  Surf and beach conditions will be good all week with low risks of rip currents and normal surf with wave heights 1-2 feet.  UV Index will be Very High all week.  So despite some wet conditions to start the week, the entire days will not be a wash and no significant weather events are forecast right now.

A frontal boundary will remain stalled to the south of the area through Tuesday, while some weak areas of low pressure will move east along the boundary.  A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday and Tuesday Night.  High pressure will then build across the area for the remainder of the week.

The upcoming weekend looks OK!  Not fantastic, but not a wash out either right now.  Low pressure moving along the stalled out boundary to our south may bring some chances of rain and thunderstorms both days.  Temperatures would continue in the upper 70's to low 80's with some slightly moister air and humidity over the area.  The low could also bring some cautious water conditions with gusty winds and building seas, with possible Small Craft Advisories, especially across southern inshore waters and offshore areas.  Surf and beach conditions look ok as well with low to moderate risks of rip currents and normal to slightly elevated surf, especially across southern areas.  This could change either way right now and midweek will give a much better picture of the weekend.

Tropics are quiet again, however the models are hinting at something forming in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico affecting the Gulf States.  Nothing there right now and way too soon to even discuss details, however conditions and weather patterns are favorable for development.

Anyone interested in meteor showers, the Perseid Meteor Showers will peak Sunday and Monday Night with low light moon conditions and varying cloud cover.  It may be spotty enough to catch a decent show.

Have a great week!

Monday
Sky:  Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  20% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, 40%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:    Low to mid 80's
Low:     Upper 60's to low 70's, mid 60's northern areas and higher elevations
UV Index:  Very High 9/15
Sunrise: 6:05am
Sunset: 7:58pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather  - Fair
Weather2Hunt - 37/50

Tuesday
Sky:  Mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  60% chance showers and thunderstorms during the day, 30%-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms at night
Temperatures
High:   Low to mid 80's, upper 70's northern areas and higher elevations
Low:   Low to mid 60's, low to mid 50's northern areas and higher elevations
UV Index:  Very High 8/15
Sunrise: 6:06am
Sunset: 7:57pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Good
Weather2Hunt - 40/50

Wednesday
Sky:   Mostly sunny/partly cloudy becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance, 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day across southern areas
Temperatures
High:   Mid  70's to low 80's
Low:   Low 50's to mid 60's
UV Index:  Very High 8/15
Sunrise: 6:07am
Sunset: 7:55pm
First Qtr: 6:57am

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Good
Weather2Hunt - 37/50

Thursday
Sky:  Mostly sunny becoming partly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance
Temperatures
High:   Mid to upper 70's
Low:   Mid 50's to mid 60's
UV Index:  Very High 9/15
Sunrise: 6:08am
Sunset: 7:54pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Very Good
Weather2Hunt - 43/50

Friday
Sky:   Mostly to partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy
Precipitation:  0% to slight chance during the day, 30% chance of showers at night across southern areas
Temperatures
High:   Low 80's inland, mid to upper 70's along/on the water, northern areas and higher elevations
Low:   Low 60's inland, mid 60's along/on the water, low 50's northern areas and higher elevations
UV Index:  Very High 9/15
Sunrise: 6:09am
Sunset: 7:53pm

Fishing Forecast
Accuweather - Good
Weather2Hunt - 37/50

Monday Surface Analysis



Tuesday Surface Analysis



Wednesday Surface Analysis



Thursday Surface Analysis



Friday Surface



Total Precipitation Monday - Friday



Total Precipitation Sunday - Sunday



Coastal Waters (out to 20nm) Forecasts

Raritan Bay/New York Harbor to Sandy Hook
Water Temperature:  80°F
Monday
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot becoming 1-2 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  NW 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1-2 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Wednesday Night
Wind:  NW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Thursday
Wind:  N 5 knots becoming S in the evening
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Thursday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots becoming W after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Friday
Wind:  N 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf (Ocean):  1 foot

Sandy Hook Tides (Bay)
                              



Sandy Hook (Ocean) to Barnegat Inlet
Water Temperature:  74°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSW 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 12 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 11 to 15 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: N 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Thursday Morning
Winds: N 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 4 to 5 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Morning
Winds: NE 4 to 6 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1 foot

Manasquan Inlet Tides




Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park)
Water Temperature:  79°F
Monday
Wind:  Variable  5 knots becoming SSE 6 knots in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 7-9 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 6-9 knots becoming NNW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  SSW 6 knots becoming NNW after midnight
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  N 7 knots becoming E in the afternoon
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  Variable 5 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet

Barnegat Bay (Island Beach State Park) Tides




Barnegat Inlet to Cape May (Ocean)
Water Temperature:  76°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Monday Afternoon
Winds: NE 1 to 1 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Morning
Winds: WSW 5 to 7 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SSW 7 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Morning
Winds: N 13 to 18 knots
Seas:  NNE 3 feet at 4 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: NNE 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  E 3 feet at 5 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Morning
Winds: NE 7 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: E 8 to 10 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Morning
Winds: E 8 to 11 knots
Seas:  ESE 1 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1 foot
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Surf:  1-2 feet

Cape May (Ocean) Tides




Delaware Bay
Water Temperature:  77°F
Monday
Wind:  SE 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  2 feet
Monday Night
Wind:  S 5 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet, Visibility 1-3 nm
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday
Wind:  SW 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Tuesday Night
Wind:  W 5-10 knots becoming N 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday
Wind:  N 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Wednesday Night
Wind:  E 10-15 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Thursday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1 foot or less
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet
Friday Night
Wind:  E 5-10 knots
Seas:  1-2 feet
Surf:  0-1 feet

Delaware River (Ship John Shoal) Tides




Offshore Waters

Midshore to Offshore (20nm-50nm)
Water Temperature:  73°F-75°F
Monday Morning
Winds: SSE 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 10 seconds
Monday Afternoon
Winds: S 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Morning
Winds: SW 9 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Tuesday Afternoon
Winds: SW 10 to 13 knots
Seas:  ESE 3 feet at 9 seconds
Wednesday Morning
CAUTIOUS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
Winds: N 15 to 21 knots
Seas:  N 4 feet at 5 seconds
Wednesday Afternoon
Winds: N 10 to 14 knots
Seas:  NNE 4 feet at 5 seconds
Thursday Morning
Winds: NNE 3 to 5 knots
Seas:  S 2 feet at 6 seconds
Thursday Afternoon
Winds: SSE 3 to 4 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 10 seconds
Friday Morning
Winds: ENE 6 to 8 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds
Friday Afternoon
Winds: ESE 6 to 9 knots
Seas:  ESE 2 feet at 9 seconds


Sea Surface Temperatures

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)



NWS OPC Sea Surface Temperature 3 Day Loop

NWS OPC Gulf Stream Currents 3 Day Loop

Ocean Currents

Surface



20 Meters (≈65 feet)


 

Weather Outlook Sponsored by Buoy Weather
The Global Marine Forecasting Solution!

*****These forecasts are a general extended outlook for weather and water conditions over a large area, covering all of NJ and adjacent coastal waters to 50nm.  Weather and water conditions can and do change frequently and can also be different for specific locations.  Water conditions ratings are general guidelines only.  Make sure to check the specific seas and winds for the area you will be traveling.  Every boat and captain has different operating values.  You should always check the most updated weather and water condition forecasts at NWS/NOAA and/or Buoy Weather or your trusted weather source before venturing out![/i]

*****Forecasts obtained from Buoy Weather & the National Weather Service (NOAA)

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  A mix of sun and clouds this morning with some showers and thunderstorms across Central & North Western NJ moving east-northeast.  There is a 20%-40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms today with increased chances tonight.  The SPC has issued a Generalized Risk of Severe Weather today as well with storms capable of damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rains.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80's inland with low 80's along/on the water and across northern areas.  Overnight lows in the upper 60's to low 70's with low to mid 60's across northern areas and higher elevations.  It is very muggy this morning with temperatures and dew points almost the same causing very high humidity.  The dew points will drop some for most areas into the low to mid 60's bringing slightly less humidity as the day heats up.

Water conditions are rated good today for all locations.  The southerly flow has backed off some today, but will not be entirely gone.  Winds are variable and light across the state and marine waters.  Raritan Bay will have west winds around 5 knots shifting to the south and then increasing to 5-10 knots late today into tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have variable winds less than 5 knots becoming south  around 5 knots in the afternoon then south-southwest at 5 knots tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have southeast winds around 5 knots becoming southwest at 5-10 knots tonight.  Seas will start at 1-2 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less by late afternoon with limited visibility to 1-3 nautical miles.  Inshore ocean waters will have varying winds from west/west-southwest/southwest at 2-6 knots changing to east-northeast at 2-3 knots this afternoon with seas 2 feet at 9-10 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have west/southwest winds at 5-8 knots changing to northeast/west-northwest at 1-3 knots this afternoon with seas 2 feet at 9 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions are good with Low Risks of rip currents and normal surf.  Winds are variable and light this morning with normal surf around 1-2 feet.  Winds will continue to be variable and light and may eventually come from the south at 5 mph with wave heights 2 feet with a 2 foot southeast swell at 9 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 8/15.

Have a great day!

[Pfishingruven]

There is an increased risk of severe weather tomorrow, Tuesday, with a Slight Risk for central and southern portions of the state.  Heavy rains are possible with more than an inch likely with thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and frequent lightning.  These storms will move in during the early morning hours through the rush hour commute and hang around all day.

Be safe and I will have an update in the morning.

[Pfishingruven]

Trying to get the days outlook done, but the weather is not cooperating!  Some severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rains prompting Flash Flood Warnings are moving across the state.  If you are in the path of these storms be ready and stay safe!

[Pfishingruven]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1012 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT

* AT 1009 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE STORM
  CONTAINING THE POSSIBLE TORNADO WAS NEAR MANAHAWKIN...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  HARVEY CEDARS AROUND 1020 AM EDT...
  BARNEGAT LIGHT AROUND 1025 AM EDT...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST
RESORT...EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR
VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

TAKE COVER INSIDE NOW. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. PUT AS
MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE OUTSIDE AS YOU CAN. AVOID WINDOWS.
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 7412 3968 7426 3971 7428 3978 7418
      3972 7415 3977 7415 3978 7413 3980 7413
      3981 7411 3983 7411 3984 7408 3979 7408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1411Z 243DEG 24KT 3971 7422

$$

FORECASTER:  DRAG



This cell is moving east-northeast/northeast and will move out over Barnegat Light and Marine Waters!  Take cover if you are in the path of this storm!

[Pfishingruven]

Tornado Warning has been canceled.  Hearing reports of a possible tornado in northeastern Manahawkin with power outages and flash fooding.  The storm died out over the BI and IBSP.  Hope everyone at the jetties took cover because wind velocities were showing 75+ mph when the storm passed over !

There is now a Marine Warning for all waters from Sandy Hook to Delaware

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1039 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SANDY HOOK AND GREAT EGG INLET
  NJ OUT TO 20 NM...
  THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN SANDY HOOK NJ AND FENWICK
  ISLAND DE OUT 20 TO 40 NM...

  INCLUDING AXEL CARLSON REEF...BARNEGAT LIGHT...BARNEGAT LIGHT
  REEF...BEACH HAVEN...BRIGANTINE...GARDEN STATE NORTH REEF...GARDEN
  STATE SOUTH REEF...HARVEY CEDARS...LAVALLETTE...LITTLE EGG INLET...
  LITTLE EGG REEF...MANASQUAN INLET...SEA GIRT REEF...SEASIDE PARK
  AND SHARK RIVER REEF...

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1034 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34
  KNOTS OR GREATER FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO 19 NM WEST OF
  BRIGANTINE...OR FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO 10 NM NORTHWEST OF BUOY
  GE...MOVING EAST AT 55   KNOTS.

* THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
  OVER LITTLE EGG INLET AND GARDEN STATE SOUTH REEF BY 1045 AM EDT
  OVER SHARK RIVER REEF BY 1050 AM EDT
  OVER BRIGANTINE BY 1055 AM EDT
  OVER LITTLE EGG REEF BY 1100 AM EDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 7331 3947 7338 3925 7370 3933 7466
      3934 7460 3937 7458 3934 7457 3936 7452
      3939 7452 3938 7448 3945 7446 3945 7440
      3952 7442 3952 7444 3960 7418 4013 7404
      4019 7359 3994 7337 3980 7330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1438Z 261DEG 56KT 4012 7392 3962 7405
          3940 7471

$$



DRAG

[Pfishingruven]

This is the downgraded Tornado Warned cells moving through Ocean County, east-northeast!

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1032 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN OCEAN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 1026 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  ANOTHER  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS
  EXTENDED FROM BROOKVILLE TO MANAHAWKIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
  MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HARVEY CEDARS AROUND 1040 AM EDT...
  BARNEGAT LIGHT AROUND 1050 AM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WINDS OF MORE THAN 57 MPH...OR HAIL ONE
INCH OR LARGER.

BRIEF BUT VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS QUICKLY AND COVER
ROADS WITH WATER. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND
THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE BEACHES. FOR YOUR SAFETY...IMMEDIATELY MOVE
OFF THE BEACH AND SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3967 7414 3959 7420 3957 7426 3959 7427
      3960 7429 3957 7428 3955 7431 3958 7429
      3960 7431 3984 7429 3993 7410 3992 7409
      3994 7406 3981 7407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1431Z 244DEG 24KT 3985 7424 3971 7426

$$

FORECASTER:  DRAG

[Pfishingruven]

Stafford Township Police Department released this statement:

All of Stafford has been affected by this weather. Traffic lights are out, trees and power lines are down throughout the township and blocking roadways. Residents are strongly encouraged to stay home and OFF the roadways. Thank you for your cooperation. Please share.

[Pfishingruven]

Good afternoon!  Sorry, this outlook is late, but is has been a very busy weather morning already with showers and severe thunderstorms moving across the state.  Some heavy rains have already fallen across Western Central NJ with some areas receiving 2-3 inches of rain.  Other thunderstorms are producing very high and damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rains.  There have been several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, a Tornado Warning and some Marine Warnings already as well!  Most of the state excluding extreme northern NJ is under Flash Flood Warnings through this afternoon and rivers and streams are quickly filling.  Rain and thunderstorms will continue throughout the day becoming scattered this afternoon.  The SPC has placed part of the state in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather and the rest of the state in Generalized Risk.  The areas in a Slight Risk have a threat of thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rains and possible tornadoes.  The rest of the state could see damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rains.  Remember, weather and thunderstorms DO NOT know boundaries, so be alert statewide for potential severe weather.  High temperatures today in the mid 70's to low 80's.  The lower temperatures along/on the water and northern areas.  Overnight lows in the low to mid 60's with mid 50's in northern areas and higher elevations.  With two cold fronts pushing through the area tonight, slightly cooler and drier air is on the way for the rest of the week with sunny and dry conditions.

Water conditions will vary by location and time today, with gusty winds and building seas likely this afternoon for most locations with cautious conditions bordering on Small Craft Advisory criteria.  Waters from Sandy Hook east along Long Island are already under Small Craft Advisories.  Raritan Bay will have southeast winds 5-10 knots becoming north with gusts to 20 knots then northwest tonight at 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots after midnight with seas 1-2 feet and limited visibility of 1-3 nautical miles.  Barnegat Bay will have southwest winds around 10 knots becoming northwest tonight with seas 1 foot or less increasing to 1-2 feet tonight.  Delaware Bay will have southwest winds 10-15 knots becoming northwest around 10 knots tonight with seas 1-2 feet and limited visibility to 1-3 nautical miles.  Inshore ocean waters will have south/south-southeast winds 7-13 knots increasing to southwest 15-20 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon.  Seas will be 2 feet at 9 seconds increasing to 3 feet at 4 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore will have south-southeast winds 5-10 knots shifting to the south-southwest/south at 10-15 knots midshore and 17-24 knots offshore with seas 2 feet at 9 seconds building to 3 feet at 4 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions look ok today with Low Risk of rip currents with some higher rougher surf and gusty winds.  South winds will continue around 10 mph with some gusts to 15-20 mph.  Surf will be rougher at times with 2-3 foot waves and some occasional 3-4 foot waves with a 2-3 foot southeast swell at 8 seconds increasing to 4 seconds.  Surf temperatures are still in the low to mid 70's.  UV Index is Moderate at 3/15.

Have a great rest of the day!

[Pfishingruven]

Small Craft Advisories are in effect from Sandy Hook to Delaware including the lower part of Delaware Bay through Wednesday Morning.

mall Craft Advisory
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ450-451-140845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT... BECOMING
NW 5 TO 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
AROUND 3 FT. MAINLY IN S SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF
8 SECONDS.   SCATTERED TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY
1 TO 3 NM EARLY THIS EVENING.
.WED...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO
4 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.FRI...W WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 TO 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ452-453-140845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT LATE
THIS EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN BECOMING NW 10 TO 15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS AROUND 3 FT. MAINLY IN SE SWELL
WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS.   SCATTERED TSTMS EARLY THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM EARLY THIS EVENING.
.WED...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO
4 FT. MAINLY IN S SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...
DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
AROUND 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 FOOT OR LESS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ431-140845-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 1 FOOT OR LESS... THEN 2 TO 3 FT
EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VSBY
1 TO 3 NM EARLY THIS EVENING.
.WED...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...
BECOMING N AROUND 5 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 TO 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.FRI...W WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 TO 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

WINDS AND WAVES HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE TO 20 NM OFFSHORE AND DELAWARE
BAY

ANZ454-455-140845-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
441 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING NW 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. MAINLY IN E SWELL WITH A
DOMINANT PERIOD OF 9 SECONDS.   SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLY
THIS EVENING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. VSBY 1 TO 3 NM EARLY THIS EVENING.
.WED...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. MAINLY IN N SWELL WITH A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS.
.WED NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...
BECOMING N 5 TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.THU...N WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
1 TO 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 TO 3 NM.

WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR TSTMS.

$$
URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

ANZ431-450>455-140830-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0067.130814T0900Z-130814T1600Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
330 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

* SEAS...2 TO 4 FEET.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

[ped579]

Hi Matt,

I was hearing that there were possibly 2 funnel clouds spotted today.  One in Manahawkin and the other by SOCH (Southern Ocean County Hospital).

No definite conformation second party so far.

Paul

[Pfishingruven]

Hi Matt,

I was hearing that there were possibly 2 funnel clouds spotted today.  One in Manahawkin and the other by SOCH (Southern Ocean County Hospital).

No definite conformation second party so far.

Paul

Thanks Paul, interesting!  Waiting for the survey by the NWS.  Have you seen any damage pictures?

[Pfishingruven]

An EF-0 tornado was confirmed in Stafford Township this morning by NWS Staff.  A tornado with winds of 75-80 mph touched down at Rte 9 & Oak Ave and moved northeast lifting up at Beach Ave & Halliard Ave leaving a 50-100 yard path of damage.  Most damage involved downed trees, wires, and power poles, but also damaged some roofs.

NWS PHI Public Information Statement

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  It's a beautiful day today with cooler and drier air in place.  It can even be chilly at times with a brisk northwest breeze.  Today will continue to be sunny with clear skies, few clouds and no rain or thunderstorms.  Northwest winds will continue at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts before lessening tonight.  It is unseasonably cool for the middle of August.  High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70's with cooler temperatures along/on the water and across northern areas.  Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50's with mid 40's across northern areas and higher elevations.  Much drier air has moved in bringing dew points down into the 40's this morning with humidity low and comfortable.  Temperatures and dew points will slowly return to normal this week, so enjoy the break while it lasts.

Water conditions are cautious with Small Craft Advisories in effect through 12PM from Sandy Hook south to Delaware and east to Montauk Point including New York Harbor, Raritan Bay and lower Delaware Bay.  The passing cold front has brought some gusty winds and building, choppy seas and may last through tonight.  The SCA will be re-evaluated at noon and could be extended if conditions persist.  Raritan Bay will have northwest winds around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming 15-20 knots tonight then diminishing to 5-10 knots with gusts to 20 knots late tonight with seas 2 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet.  Barnegat Bay will have northwest winds around 15 knots diminishing to north-northwest winds around 10 knots with seas 1 foot.  Delaware Bay will have northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots in the lower bay diminishing to 10-15 knots late today before changing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots tonight then diminishing to north winds 5-10 knots with seas 2-3 feet subsiding to 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have northwest/north-northwest winds 15-25 knots changing to west-northwest/northwest winds 10-20 knots this afternoon with higher gusts all day and seas 2-3 feet at 4 seconds increasing to 9 seconds for some northern areas.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have northwest/north-northwest winds 15-20 knots changing to west-northwest winds 12-20 knots with seas 2 feet at 9 seconds for midshore and 4 feet at 4-5 seconds for offshore.

Surf and beach conditions look good with Low Risk of rip currents.  Winds could be gusty at times from the northwest at 15-20 mph with some moderate to rougher surf at times with wave heights 2-3 feet with a 2-3 foot east swell at 6 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the low 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 8/15.

There are two areas being watched in the tropics.  One in the Gulf of Mexico and one in the Eastern Atlantic off of Africa.  Just something to watch over the next few day.


Have a great day!!

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  Another great day today with the feeling of Fall in the air this morning.  However, Fall-like conditions will not stick around for long, yet.  Today will be a repeat of yesterday with less wind.  It is sunny this morning with a cloud here or there and will continue to be sunny, clear and dry all day.  High temperatures will be in the upper 70's to low 80's inland with mid 70's along/on the water.  Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50's inland, low 60's along/on the water (ocean temps keeping air temps from dropping into the 50's) and upper 40's for northern areas and higher elevations.  Dry air is still in place keeping dew points and humidity low.

Water conditions are rated good today for all locations and waters have recovered from the gusty winds yesterday.  Winds will be on the lighter side today, especially compared to the blow yesterday.  Raritan Bay will have west winds 5-10 knots shifting to southwest late today then west again late tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have variable winds at 5 knots or less today becoming south 5-7 knots tonight before lessening to variable at less than 5 knots again with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have north winds 5-10 knots becoming south late then around 5 knots tonight before lessening to variable and light late tonight with seas 1-2 feet.  Inshore ocean waters will have varying winds from northwest/north-northwest/north at 5-10 knots becoming west/north-northwest/north at 5 knots or less with seas 1-2 feet at 8-10 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have north-northwest/north winds at 5-10knots becoming west-southwest/northwest at 5 knots or less with seas 1-3 feet at 8-9 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions are good today with Low Risks of rip currents.  Winds are out of the northwest around 10 mph and will shift and lessen to the southwest later today around 5-10 mph with normal surf and wave heights 1-2 feet with a 2 foot southeast swell at 9 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 8/15.

Invest 93L in the East Atlantic was upgraded to Tropical Depression 5 last night and Tropical Storm Erin early this morning.  This storm is still very far east and it is too early to say where it will go.  Right now, it will move west as a Tropical Storm and approach the Leeward Islands/Lesser Antilles to the north.  There is also Invest 92L in the Gulf of Mexico.  This storm will likely affect the Gulf States from Florida over to Texas in the next few days.  Whether is becomes a Tropical Depression or named storm, it will still bring some higher winds and rains to these areas.  Right now, it does not look like it will take the shape of a major storm, but those Gulf waters are warm and conditions are favorable for strengthening if it gets its act together.  Anyone in the Gulf Coast states needs to be watching this area over the next couple of days!

Have a great day!  Hopefully, you can enjoy the nice weather.

[Pfishingruven]

Good morning!  I can keep this short today with the lack of anything, but nice weather.  Another nice day and repeat of the last couple of days.  Sunny with a few clouds here  or there.  Clouds will begin to build in later today into the overnight.  Dry with no rain in the forecast.  High temperatures in the upper 70's to low 80's.  Overnight lows in the mid to upper 50's with some low 60's along/on the water and low 50's across northern areas and higher elevations.  Dew points will remain in the 50's today with dry air still in place keeping humidity low.  Wind will be light and variable.

Water conditions are rated good for all locations with mostly light, varying winds today and calm seas.  The bays and oceans look like glass this morning.  Raritan Bay will have northwest winds at 5 knots becoming southwest late this morning then southeast this afternoon then south 5-10 knots tonight before changing again to the southwest after midnight with seas 1 foot or less.  Barnegat Bay will have variable winds around 5 knots becoming east-southeast today then variable again tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Delaware Bay will have light and variable winds becoming north around 5 knots later this morning then east this afternoon and tonight with seas 1 foot or less.  Inshore ocean waters will have varying winds from west-northwest/northwest/north-northeast at 5-8 knots becoming east-southeast/east at 3-9 knots this afternoon with seas 1 foot at 9 seconds.  Midshore to Offshore waters will have west-northwest winds 2-6 knots becoming south-southeast 2-4 knots this afternoon with seas 1-2 feet at 9 seconds.

Surf and beach conditions are good with Low Risks of rip currents.  Currently winds are variable and light, less than 5 mph with calm surf around 1 foot.  The ocean beyond the small breakers looks like glass.  Winds will be out of the north and then east today at 5 mph with calm to normal surf at 1-2 feet with light swells at 9 seconds.  Surf temperatures are in the low to mid 70's.  UV Index is Very High at 8/15.

Still watching Tropical Storm Erin in the East Atlantic and an area in the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical Storm Erin's path has been shifted to the north now and has downgraded the storm to a tropical depression in about 5 days.  It looks like it will turn and go out to sea, a "fish storm," but it is still too far out to say either way with 100% confidence.  It is also too early to say how it will or will not impact the area.  The disturbance in the Gulf looks like it will impact Southern Texas or Mexico as a low pressure system with some gustier winds and rain.  It will also cause tropical moisture along the entire Gulf Coast with the Florida Pan Handle, Alabama and Mississippi to see upwards of 6 inches of rain over the next few days. 

Have a great day and enjoy the weather!