Winter Storm/Nor'Easter Wednesday - Thursday

[Pfishingruven]

Winter Storm Watches have already been issued days ahead of a potential major Winter Storm/Nor'Easter. Again, another double barrel shotgun with a northern and southern component that will phase south of the region and come up the coast as a potent Nor'Easter! The two pieces of energy that will ultimately be responsible for this storm came ashore in the West today. I know, we have heard this before...but, there is model agreement. With the energy already within monitoring areas, this energy has made it into the various calculations for this afternoons storms. So, the known, is that the region WILL have a storm Wednesday Night through Thursday. This will be a coastal storm that will bring precipitation in all forms from the potential of rain, to mixed precip, to ice to snow. High winds will also accompany this storm as will coastal effects. Minor to moderate coastal flooding (guidance is suggesting 2-4 feet above normal high tides or 4 feet of storm surge. Beach erosion is likely as well with models suggesting surf to 5-10 feet and ocean waves 8-11 feet with Gale Warnings. The unknowns right now are track, intensity and precipitation type and totals. This will change many times before the actual event.

Winter Storm Watches have been issued for Cape May, Cumberland, Atlantic, Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Burlington and Ocean Counties! The rest of the state will follow in the next 12-24 hours with Watches turning into Warnings on Wednesday (if the threat still exists).

Below are some maps showing the pieces of energy coming into the picture this morning, followed by two Surface Analysis Forecasts, showing a strong coastal low at 996 mb. This will likely be lower as it approaches the Jersey Coast and then you can see how it drops to 960 mb off of New England (960 mb is the pressure of a Category 2 or 3 hurricane). The last images are Snowfall and Ice Total Forecasts.

Updates to follow...

NWS PHI Briefing #1 "Major Nor'Easter"

[Pfishingruven]

NWS New York City Briefing #1

[Hotrod]

Ah  F it!!  Another day off..

[Kenny]

Ah  F it!!  Another day off..

And some more shoveling   

[Pfishingruven]

Ah  F it!!  Another day off..

And some more shoveling   

 

[ChrisL]

 5 more weeks of winter?  Bring it on. 
This is what winter is supposed to be like.
 

[Hunter 2]

 

[Still Running]

 

[Pfishingruven]

The NWS has updated forecasts for the Winter Storm/Nor'Easter that will hit the area on Wednesday and Thursday. This is going to be long event, with impacts starting Wednesday Night and the heaviest precipitation from around Wednesday Midnight to Thursday Late Afternoon/Evening and not completely moving out until Thursday Night. NWS PHI has lowered some snowfall totals along the coast. The thinking is that immediate coastal areas will have more of a mix or rain than snow. With that said, the track is everything. A track of 50 miles one way or another and 2-4 inches could be 12+ inches. Some other factors to consider is that while the models at noon trended more north and west, the ensembles actually trended south and east. The forecast track is right on the northernmost and westernmost edge of the models, while the average would take this storm south and/or east (see the track map with all of the colored dots. Each dot represents a model run and the location of the center of the low). What this means is a storm more to the west will bring less snow along the coast and more inland, as well as farther inland. A storm more east and/or south will bring more snow to the coast and shift snowfall totals in that direction. This track is the most argued and debated issue with these storms. As for intensity, the NWS is saying 986 mb...I have seen sub 980 mb pressures for this storm off of the Jersey Coast. The stronger the storm...the more precipitation, the ability to entrain colder air out of the north, higher winds, higher seas, higher flooding and the less likely are "warm" air from the ocean (which is not warm this year)will work its way into the storm. In addition to precipitation, the storm will bring 20-30 knot winds with gusts 40+ knots, seas to 15 feet, surf 5-11 feet, minor coastal flooding with moderate coastal flooding possible with tides running 2-3 feet above normal and beach erosion. Only good news with this update is that icing does not look like a concern right now.

On a side note...the system coming out of the south, that will become the coastal low has already over-performed with snow totals exceeding the forecasts by several inches in most places and that was only the beginning for them still.

More updates to follow...be safe!

NWS PHI Nor'Easter Briefing #2

[ped579]

It looks like Toms River will be mostly rain.  I am hoping.

[Pfishingruven]

It looks like Toms River will be mostly rain.  I am hoping.

I have a feeling we need to hope really hard...

[ped579]

It goes down hill really fast from Hooper Ave.  I know we only had a trace this last time and mostly rain, here anyway.  The further west you go the worse it is in a very narrow swath along the coast.

[BigAl13]

if you dont like this storm track wait for the next one

[Pfishingruven]

if you dont like this storm track wait for the next one

Are you referring to the next storm or the changed forecast every 12 hours ?

[Pfishingruven]

It goes down hill really fast from Hooper Ave.  I know we only had a trace this last time and mostly rain, here anyway.  The further west you go the worse it is in a very narrow swath along the coast.

Yes, very weird township and county dynamics in this area.

[Capt. Carl]

Matt,
How aboit a nice forecast for our area for once here huh?
Depression is setting in fast! 

[Still Running]

Cool I'm in the 10 -14" 

[Kenny]

In the same boat Rick...we're in the WTF zone 

[Pfishingruven]

Matt,
How aboit a nice forecast for our area for once here huh?
Depression is setting in fast! 

I'm with you on this! I really dislike winter. On a good note, if the long term forecasts hold true, end of February looks to start a thawing/warming trend. I don't count on the extended range forecasts too much, but it looks hopeful?

[Bucktail]

My long range forecast calls for warmer temperatures from June through August.