NJ Saltwater Fisherman Forums
NJ Saltwater Fisherman => Weather and Hurricane Info => Topic started by: Pfishingruven on February 05, 2013, 04:47:42 PM
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A little early to be pinpointing anything on this storm, but the NWS PHI has already issued Weather Briefings. Track and intensity will fluctuate through tomorrow night. Right now, we are looking at a storm that will bring snow to northern central and northern NJ as well as PA, NY and possible blizzard conditions into New England. Northern NJ could see 1-4 inches of snow, while southern central NJ could see a mix and south of there rain. Coastal areas will experience erosion, winds to 40mph or so and coastal flooding.
Here is the link to the briefing. More details to come later today and tomorrow.
NWS PHI Briefing #1 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
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That damn groundhog said early spring. 5hrug
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whs
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I know I'm in the minority but can I at least get a plowable event so I can make some money this winter. this coating following by 40 degree temps and misty rain crap is horrible. last "winter" was bad enough, two in a row just sucks.
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Only 1-4 clp
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Thanks. I will be driving to the Poconos "Great Wolf Lodge" Sat morning with my crew ans families. chrz
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And again The weather people put out confusing and conflicting, predictions and information. no 2 reports on this storm are the same.
With if it does this or that, Yes weather is unpredictable but The Millions spent ine would think a better job could be done. And like this one be prepared stay aware. Do not turn your back on it as may did with other storms only to be sorry. Bill
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And again The weather people put out confusing and conflicting, predictions and information. no 2 reports on this storm are the same.
With if it does this or that, Yes weather is unpredictable but The Millions spent ine would think a better job could be done. And like this one be prepared stay aware. Do not turn your back on it as may did with other storms only to be sorry. Bill
First off, meteorology is part science and part art. The forecasts are only as good as the person producing them. No two forecasts will ever be the same from two different meteorologists. This is why I don't get wrapped up in all the details, but look at the bigger picture. Secondly, meteorology and weather forecasts are only as good as the models that produce them. Models 2 days out are only good to say 200 miles, even though they claim they have higher resolutions. Winter storms and snowfall totals are the hardest to forecast...harder than tornadoes and hurricanes combined! Yet, they have the least amount of research being done and the least amount of higher specializing meteorologists. In a Winter Storm/Nor'Easter you have to worry about cold air, warm air, dry air, track, amount of precipitable water, etc...lots of factors. You also have to worry about timing of two low pressure systems coming together and phasing. If they don't phase exactly when the models say or when the meteorologist says, your forecast is a bust! So, the difference between 12 inches and rain could be less than 200 miles, which is where the lack of accuracy in these models comes in. ...And yes, weather is ever changing, dynamically by the minute, yet we only sample the atmosphere every 12 hours over greater than 200+ miles between many weather offices. Unfortunately, we do not have a supercomputer built or available to handle the many Calculus algorithms that go into Physics and forecasting weather.
I post this for every storm and event. DON'T get wrapped up in the drama. Broadcast Meteorologists make ratings with storms like these, The Weather Channel makes ratings when there are storms. The NWS is very conservative, but puts out the facts as they come in. Reading and interpreting their facts is the most accurate weather forecast.
For this storm, currently Northern NJ is in the higher amounts of accumulation. Central to southern and coastal areas could get lower amounts to nothing more than rain. However, if this storm shifts just a few 100 miles either southeast or northwest, it is a completely different ball game! Models ALWAYS trend much less snowier 4-6 days out, then very snowy around 2-3 days and then moderate around 1-2 days. So far, 4-6 days said nothing, then the latest runs last night and this morning have trended snowier for the entire area, showing up to 77 inches of snow in Massachusetts. This will never verify, but it does signal a likelihood of a bigger snow event. By tonight, the models will paint a better picture and verification of initiation and trends can be taken into account when putting out forecasts.
I would not have started this thread if I did not see a probability and possibility of a decent snow event and Nor'Easter. Even without snow, rain and winds could still pose a problem as well as coastal flooding.
This is definitely something to watch and be aware of! I will, as always, keep this thread up to date, as the information I read is pertinent to the event. I WILL NOT and NEVER have sensationalized a weather event just because TWC and various other media weather outlets do.
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Never doughted your hard work and dedication to you posts I have learned a lot from you Postings. and never Pass it By. Thanks Bill
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Never doughted your hard work and dedication to you posts I have learned a lot from you Postings. and never Pass it By. Thanks Bill
I know that and this was not specifically directed at you! I just used your quote to take a couple of minutes and explain the inner workings of weather. I am also the first to admit, that many of the forecasts and technology are not acceptable, neither is the constant fighting that goes on between the various agencies and meteorologists. We all know our opinion on NOAA thd ;D!
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The NWS PHI just released Briefing #2. The threat of significant snowfall has increased for NJ, especially for Northern NJ. The possibility and probability of 8+ inches is there for these northern areas. The snow/rain line is still a big question, however, coastal erosion and flooding is a real threat as well. The timing on this event looks to be later than originally thought, around Friday to Friday Evening for the main event. The NWS will not issue Snowfall Prediction Maps until 48 hours. This Briefing was issued due to model agreement on a snowier storm leading to higher confidence for NNJ snowfall amounts.
NWS PHI Briefing #2 Nor'Easter (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
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NOAA smk We were on the way off shore Sword and Tuna 3 Day trip. out of Manasquan. 10am. NOAA was saying Seas 2-4 wind SW 8 Clear, For The next 2 days for off shore 25 -50 Miles so we left at the inlet it was 1-2 seas light wind. when we got to 45 miles seas were 15 - 20 wind ??? whistled thru the pole guides White Caps cfzd Hardly they were Breakers The wind from dead west. we fought that for 9 hours to get back. and hit the inlet dead On NO GPS then Loran and compass. The Coast guard Talked on and off the whole time to us. And that was not one of the worst forcast from Noaa. Ps. That forcast was still being brodcast when we out there. nts smk Made many trips out and relied on other Boat Capt's that were already on Station. and Coast Guard reports, Don't think they do that anymore. Ever spend the Day fishing out of Manasquan when the red Flag was up and the same when you got back . fcp Keep up the posting News 12 NJ has it over a foot for north jersey now and forcasts it to big for Central Jersey wind Mix back and forth. Just Gased Snow Blower and ran Generator. Filled gas cans and Chevy. Got Milk Bread. Put up a batch of Beet Pickled Eggs Moday. Glad to be retired no commitments. Stay safe and Dry. Bill
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NWS PHI has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Friday into Saturday for Sussex, Warren, Morris, Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Mercer & Monmouth Counties. A Winter Storm Watch means Winter Storm conditions are possible 24-36 hours from now. NWS PHI is calling for 5-10 inches of snow in these areas, with 4-8 in central NJ and 2-4 for southern NJ with the highest accumulations more north. Neighboring PA counties are also under this watch. This is not the final call on snow. I anticipate that total amounts will change and areas affected. Remember that even if you are not getting snow, there will be ample rainfall on already saturated and frozen grounds causing flash flooding conditions. Areas along the coast can expect gusty winds to gale force and gusts to 55mph, coastal beach erosion and moderate coastal flooding.
NWS NYC has also issued a Winter Storm Watch for Passaic, Essex, Bergen, Union & Hudson Counties. These areas could see 6-12 inches of snow with western Passaic in the 10-18 inch range. There is also a high possibility of a 1/4 inch of accumulating ice in these counties.
I will update any information as it comes in to me. Overall summary, Winter Storm/Nor'Easter expected Friday afternoon through Saturday with snowfall across all of NJ, with increasing accumulations north and northeast. Coastal areas will not only see snow, but Nor'Easter affects with gusty winds and blizzard like conditions.
Be safe!
NWS PHI Briefing #3 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/WedWatchGraphics_zps4b6a244f.jpg)
Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTrack-1_zps3d8d00e3.gif)
Snowfall Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTotalSnowWebFcst_zps8b550746.png)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/OKXStormTotalSnowFcst_zps5f8ceba0.png)
Ice Totals for Northeastern NJ
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/OKXStormTotalIceFcst_zps37d3bdba.png)
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...
.LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE THURSDAY, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE STORM TRACK TO OUR EAST,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.
NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-062-071000-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0002.130208T1800Z-130209T1200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-
NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...
TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
350 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SLEET AND RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS MAINLY TOWARD NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE POCONOS.
* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING, THEN IT SHOULD MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME SLEET AND RAIN FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES.
* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW, SLEET, OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
GORSE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
NJZ002-NYZ067>070-070515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN PASSAIC.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 18 INCHES...ALONG
WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME
TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
NJZ004-103>105-NYZ071-070515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG
WITH UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG
WINDS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME
TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...
NJZ006-106>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-070515-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0001.130208T1800Z-130209T1800Z/
HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
401 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY METRO AND LONG ISLAND.
* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.
* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.
* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* TIMING...FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS COULD RESULT IN
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BRING DOWN SOME TREE LIMBS...AND CAUSE
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
&&
$$
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What do you think of the RPM model??
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RPM model is a semi private model that you have to pay to access. It is not public like the many other models. It is only good to 24 hours and updates every 3 hours. It is fairly accurate for precipitation and such. It is used by a lot of broadcast meteorologists, however it is not usually something mentioned by the NWS. I don't have much experience with it because I don't have paid access to it. The WRF(Warf), the NAM, the RUC now the RAP are all short term models. I honestly like an experimental model the HRRR, which is an enhancement of the RUC. It is extremely accurate for all short term events and has a lot of parameters it covers. It only goes out 15 hours and updates every hour. This is superior for nowcasting or tracking severe weather, anticipated precipitation, etc...
HRRR (http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/)
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Here is an image of the greatest area for 2+ inches of snowfall an hour around 4PM Friday. Any areas around this area and north could see close to that amount. This is a very heavy snowfall. Most snowfall is less than an inch an hour.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/heavysnowfallriskfriday_zps9985b9fa.jpg)
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So what do you think in total is that 6-8" projection real 5hrug
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So what do you think in total is that 6-8" projection real 5hrug
Unless there are major changes tonight into tomorrow, that is pretty realistic and on the low side. NWS is always conservative. They also don't like to issue forecasts and have to significantly change them every 6-12 hours so... I was surprised to see them make a call this early and off of only 2 trending runs, but meteorologically it makes sense.
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Here is the Weather Briefing from NWS NYC
NWS NYC Winter Storm Briefing (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/WxBriefing_FB.pdf)
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Beet Pickled Eggs .
Comming to your house to weather the storm t^
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Beet Pickled Eggs .
Comming to your house to weather the storm t^
You are welcome besides the Pickled Eggs. I have Head Chease in cider vingar and Onions salt Plenty of black pepper. Used to Pickel a sauage but can't find the one I used to pickle. So I have to Buy Pigs Feet and knockles & Hocks. Snoots and ears are also hard to find around here, I stock up when I am in Lancaster or Easton thats closer. Just bring your Beer mine is Non Alcohol fcp all this was a Bar Lunch here in NJ many years ago. Did I sa Free Lunch. Bill
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Here's a good weather predictor....
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That's a good one, Kenny and true ;D!
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Fred,
This was just posted by a meteorologist friend.
Based on the latest RPM, the heaviest hit areas for this weekend's Nor'easter would be from around Boston, Massachusetts to Portland, Maine. If the latest RPM verifies, these areas could be looking at crippling snowfall totals in the range of 3-4 ft...
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Calling for 6 - 10 for us now.
LOVE IT!!
All of the towns will be breaking trucks. TT^
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Calling for 6 - 10 for us now.
LOVE IT!!
All of the towns will be breaking trucks. TT^
Still working on them ???
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Calling for 6 - 10 for us now.
LOVE IT!!
All of the towns will be breaking trucks. TT^
Still working on them ???
Nope! Just selling parts for them.
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Calling for 6 - 10 for us now.
LOVE IT!!
All of the towns will be breaking trucks. TT^
Still working on them ???
Nope! Just selling parts for them.
Either way$$
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TT^
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Looks like the NWS has backed off on snowfall totals after last nights model runs. This gets very annoying and is exactly what overbite was referring to in an earlier post. I am not sure why the NWS decided to put out such bullish numbers yesterday if they were so uncertain and change the forecast within 12 hours?? I am not going to post the continual changes of snow totals by a couple of inches each time a new model run comes out. I will update later this afternoon with a more settled forecast, hopefully. Again, this storm is very dependent on track. Last night the storm track changed to the west, lowering overall totals and increasing the storm in New England! If the actual storm goes a little farther south and east or east NJ could see higher totals. If it stays west or north, totals will be less. Then overall speed will be an affect too...faster or slower or a stalling out will affect the overall amount as well. Still snow across most of the state, with increasing accumulation from south to north. Some southern and coastal areas may only see rain.
I will update this afternoon after midday model runs are out.
TT^
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Thanks for keeping us informed Matt.
If you ya wanna make sure to get the snow totals right....wait till Sunday ;D
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Thanks for keeping us informed Matt.
If you ya wanna make sure to get the snow totals right....wait till Sunday ;D
;D
The timing of the two lows or the low and the cold front are very dependent on each other too. If the low gets here before the cold front, it will be a mostly rain event.
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Thats because I just got the snow blower ready thud
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Thats because I just got the snow blower ready thud
I wouldn't put it away yet fngr!
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Here is the latest Briefing #4 from the NWS PHI. This will still be a snowy event for Central and Northern NJ, with areas receiving 1-2 inches of snow an hour. With the more western track, the coast is looking at a bigger hit as well, with 55mph gusts and 2-3 foot storm surge, which will bring minor to moderate coastal flooding.
NWS PHI Briefing #4 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
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You're the BEST MATT!! I really do look for your reports especially in the summertime so I know what days are best to play hookie to fish and hit the beach! ;D It's really crazy watching all the different chnls when they have the weather on. Some say 1-3 others say 5-7. But one thing they have in common is it all depends on how and which way the wind blows. Looks like either way, up north will get hit one way or another but who knows how much. Chris said it, come sunday we will know for sure! hhppy As far as my area, well, I have my salt and shovel ready and will fill my truck up later after work. If it comes great, if not, then that's ok too! slt
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t^.....Thanks for all your work Matt..... chrz
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Just received an alert on my phone of a blizzard warning from now until sat at 1pm fcp
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With the afternoon updates from the NWS Philadelphia and New York City, a better consensus on this storm has occurred. The models still do not all agree, however, snowfall totals have been increased a couple of inches across the state. The NWS has issued Winter Storm Warnings, Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories on top of numerous Marine and Coastal Advisories & Warnings. However, there is a MAJOR Winter Coastal Storm moving towards the Northern Mid Atlantic and New England States. This will be a dangerous storm causing widespread snowfall, ice accumulation, blizzard conditions, high winds and coastal flooding. NJ will see anywhere from rain along immediate coastal areas changing over to snow from 1 to 16 inches. Accumulation will increase from the south to northeast. Tomorrow snow showers could begin early with the bulk of the storm starting around rush hour commute home and continuing through the overnight into Saturday. Saturday it will begin to clear out in the late afternoon. Some areas could see rates of 1-2 inches and hour of snowfall. Heavier banding could result in locally higher totals as well.
These numbers and tracks could change slightly, but it is a idea of totals expected for the area.
I will continue to update as necessary. Be safe and if you hear this storm referred to as a Nemo, it is true!
Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Sussex, Warren, Morris, Burlington, Ocean, Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, Mercer, Passaic, Bergen, Essex & Union Counties in NJ as well as neighboring PA & NY Counties
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PHIThursdayWatches_zps9df02cda.jpg)
Winter Storm Warnings (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning)
Blizzard Warnings have been issued for Eastern Bergen, Hudson, Essex and Union Counties.
Blizzard Warnings (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=blizzard%20warning)
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for Salem, Gloucester, Camden, Atlantic, Cape May and part of Burlington Counties.
Winter Weather Advisories (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory)
Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for all coastal counties. With higher lunar tides and a storm surge of 2-3 feet, flooding will be moderate to major in some areas such as Atlantic City.
Coastal Flood Watch (http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal%20flood%20watch)
There are also numerous Marine Warnings including Gale Warnings, Storm Warnings and Hurricane Force Wind Warnings for the immediate and neighboring coastal waters.
Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/StormTracksFri_zpsaab02943.gif)
Snowfall Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PHISnowTotal_zps795ee639.png)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/OKXSnowTotal_zps98d63245.png)
Ice Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/OKXIceTotal_zps1581332c.png)
2+ Inches an Hour Snowfall 4PM Friday
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/2incheshour4p_zps13e04e26.jpg)
2+ Inches an Hour Snowfall 7PM Friday
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/2incheshour7p_zps82a6ea1b.jpg)
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Just received an alert on my phone of a blizzard warning from now until sat at 1pm fcp
Only for Eastern Essex, Hudson, Union and Bergen Counties as well as NYC and a few surrounding counties then into New England!
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And like that they have re-issued snowfall total maps! I can't keep up with them. We are basically back to the same totals as yesterday. Windshield wiper effect much?
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PHISnowTotalThursday2_zps52941770.png)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/OKXThursdaySnowTotals2_zps53ed06e1.png)
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Very important information they bring up that I left out. This is going to be wet, heavy snow for most of this area due to warmer air. Heavy snow added with gusty winds could cause tree and power line damage and loss of electricity! Get those generators ready, fill up your gas cans and gas up your vehicles!!
NWS Philadelphia Briefing #5 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
NWS New York City Briefing #2 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf)
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Very important information they bring up that I left out. This is going to be wet, heavy snow for most of this area due to warmer air. Heavy snow added with gusty winds could cause tree and power line damage and loss of electricity! Get those generators ready, fill up your gas cans and gas up your vehicles!!
Did all That Tuesday. Im ready
NWS Philadelphia Briefing #5 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
NWS New York City Briefing #2 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf)
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Wait I thought we were supposed to fill the fridge with milk and get ready tons bread for some reason...
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Wait I thought we were supposed to fill the fridge with milk and get ready tons bread for some reason...
Well that too...milk and bread alert! Clear off the shelves at the food stores rofla!!
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clp pcrn pcrn pcrn clp
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Thanks for the updates. chrz
Stay Hydrated.
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pcrn
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rofla rofla rofla rofla rofla rofla
excuse me while i go change my pants, i just pissed them.
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Silly stuff. ;D
New England's supposed to get hit the hardest. Below is a road sign from Massachusetts.
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rofla clp pcrn
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rofla
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Not many changes! For most of the state, precipitation has been falling since early this morning. Most areas are just seeing rain, but some northern and central areas are already seeing a change over of rain to mix and snow. Winds have picked up too, especially along the coast with gusts in the upper 40mph. There is PLENTY of moisture in the atmosphere right now. The key element we need for snow is cold air now. When and if, this cold air gets mixed in, will really determine how much snow we get. I will tell you that the Low off the coast is really rapidly intensifying in warmer than normal ocean temperatures. We are already at 994mb, about 8-10mb lower than models predicted at this point in time and location. The NWS also increased snowfall totals for most areas south of the NJ Turnpike by 2-3 inches. Most, if not all of the state will see at least 1-2/2-4 inches! There are also Coastal Flood Warnings for all coastal areas for minor coastal flooding, however, some areas could see moderate to major flooding!
I will have a full update with graphics after the midday runs come out. I do not anticipate any major changes.
Be safe!!
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I'll be at the AC boat show soon. Should be safe if there is any coastal floding! msfsh
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Precipitation is falling across most of NJ, as well as parts of neighboring PA, New York including New York City and Long Island. Areas north of the I95/NJ Turnpike are seeing a wintry mix changing over to all snow. As cold air moves in later this afternoon and evening, the snow/rain line will continue moving southeast. There are areas in southern NJ possibly receiving a wintry mix due to pockets of cold air, however surface temperatures across most of this area are above the freezing mark. The coastal Low is just off of North Carolina/Virginia and rapidly intensifying. Central pressure is still around 992mb and rapidly dropping. Wave heights as high as 18 feet have been observed at Buoy 44014. Winds are picking up across the area with highest gusts along the coast. Gusts over 50mph have already been recorded with the full force of the storm still several hours away. Winter Storm Warnings, Blizzard Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, Coastal Flood Warnings, Wind Advisories, Hurricane Force Wind Warnings, Gale and Storm Warnings as well as Small Craft Advisories are in effect across most of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Be alert for flash flooding possibilities as well, as up to 2 inches of rain could fall in areas receiving just rain before it changes over to snow. Over 3 inches of precipitation is expected to fall across NJ, with the coastal areas receiving the highest amounts. Snow will be wet and heavy, so be prepared for fall branches and trees and power outages. Rush hour commute home today will be messy. Some areas around I78 will be 1-2 inches an hour of snowfall. There could be some slight accumulation of ice as well.
I will continue to update as necessary or as I can. I am really hoping the state does not have the power outages with this storm. Be safe and if anyone needs anything from me please feel free to PM, email at matt@njswf.com or call my cell which is in the contact list.
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/FriWatches_zps0e927865.jpg)
NJ Advisories, Watches and Warnings (http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/nj.php?x=1)
NWS PHI Briefing #6 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf)
NWS NYC Briefing #3 (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf)
Storm Track
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/FriStormTracks_zpsa9ed4244.gif)
Snowfall Totals
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/PHIFriSnowfallTotals_zps0b9b9558.png)
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/OKXFriSnowTotals_zpsd3488cc2.png)
Current State Temperatures
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/currenttemps_zps2deec5e7.png)
Current Radar
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Screenshot_2013-02-08-11-06-45_zps16a1a38b.png)
Current Radar Precipitation Type
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/Screenshots_2013-02-08-11-13-31_zps4c2ae4b4.png)
Current Wind Gusts
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/FriWindGustsfromWunderground_zpsadaeb55f.jpg)
Virginia Beach Buoy 44014
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/VirginaBeachBuoy_zps340a4aad.jpg)
Current Satellite Visible Image
(http://i524.photobucket.com/albums/cc326/mrt031079/NJSWF%20WX%20OUTLOOKS/GoesEastVisSat02081515Z_zpsb24f7fa4.jpg)
Visible Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html)
Water Vapor Satellite Loop (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html)
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rofla
Anyone find the photo offensive, ???
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pcrn
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This one?
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5hrug
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I am still hunkered down in my office.
Keeping an eye out for the big part of this storm.
Has been snowing steady up here since 8 am
So far about 4" and the wind is picking up.
Better head home soon.
Be safe all. slt
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This one?
No Post #51 photo
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Here in kenilworth it has been precipitating in one way or another since 6:20 am. theres apx 3" of covering on the ground between slush, sleet and snow temp has dropped 6 degrees since lunch and its just snow now. Good luck everyone
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The NWS has cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for Ocean and Burlington Counties and is lowering snowfall totals for any areas that have not changed over to snow yet. I am not sure why they are being so fast on their nowcasting since we have not passed the time when rain was supposed to switch over to snow, the coastal low has intensified stronger than modeled at this point and has already partially phased with the clipper out of the upper Midwest. However, there is a lack of cold air coming into the area at this time. Upper Air Soundings at noon time show that there is only a small thousand foot pocket of cold air over 6300 feet in the atmosphere. That is expected with a storm like this, though, and the cyclonic (counter-clockwise rotation) brings cold air from the northwest down into the storm. This has yet to happen across most of the central and southern areas of NJ. Snow has been steadily falling in NYC and Newark NJ and points north for several hours now. The NWS has lowered snowfall totals for points south of Middlesex/Monmouth County border by 2 inches or so. This is the big question here, whether cold air gets in, when and how much moisture is left to fall. Areas have already picked up 2+ inches of rain, causing minor flash flooding and large amounts of pooling of water on roadways. Winds have actually settled down under 40mph gusts, as well, as the stronger, windier side of the storm have already passed most of the Jersey Shore. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expected around 2 feet above normal or a total of 7.0-7.5 total storm surge.
Like ChrisL said yesterday, we will know snowfall totals on Sunday ;D!
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Still raining here in Lacey.
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About 4" up here so far. Starting to come down hard now.
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rofla
Anyone find the photo offensive, ???
No...
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Snow just starting to come across the middle of the state. This is actually the cold front that never completely phased with the coastal low and left us with mostly rain. I am thinking most areas that did not get snow will only be in the 1-4 range tops with this.
Overall, I think this storm was a big bust!!
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Just started sleeting here in the past hour. If it continues like this it's going to be a heavy, slushy mess. Just hope it doesn't bring down any power lines.
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And the same old same ol. For our area and beyound With all the resourses available they will never predict Mother nature. When will they learn crying wolf causes people to ignor the warnings as many did with sandy. most even said they always say that and nothing happens I won't Leave. Also just heard another Noreaster coming This thursday. And they could not predict 5 hours ahead,
The FAGAWE Indians had a full proof way to tell the weather. But it was lost as they were.
But all those Charts and graphs sure do look pretty
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And the same old same ol. For our area and beyound With all the resourses available they will never predict Mother nature. When will they learn crying wolf causes people to ignor the warnings as many did with sandy. most even said they always say that and nothing happens I won't Leave. Also just heard another Noreaster coming This thursday. And they could not predict 5 hours ahead,
The FAGAWE Indians had a full proof way to tell the weather. But it was lost as they were.
But all those Charts and graphs sure do look pretty
It was definitely not crying wolf!! If this storm had hit and caused damage or death and people were not prepared or aware, there would be a lot of angry people. The models and the meteorologists were spot on, minus the continual change in forecast. The cold front was right where it should have been and the coastal low tracked where it needed to. For NJ to get widespread accumulation that cold front needed to meet or beat the coastal low. The cold front slowed to a crawl and the coastal low intensified rapidly and took off! We had the moisture just not the cold air. No one can complain about not getting 18 inches of snow, tree damage and loss of electricity! Meanwhile, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are getting there own beating right now.
As for next weekend, yes the models have hinted at a coastal storm for the last 2 runs. It is out in fantasy land and anyone who leads you to believe they know what is happening, probably tried to sell you a bridge to Africa too! It is something to watch, but way to early, what I call fantasy land, and is not even worth mentioning until there is model agreement and model trend as well as atmospheric conditions that agree with the models!
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Always prepare for the worst and hope for the best. t^
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And the same old same ol. For our area and beyound With all the resourses available they will never predict Mother nature. When will they learn crying wolf causes people to ignor the warnings as many did with sandy. most even said they always say that and nothing happens I won't Leave. Also just heard another Noreaster coming This thursday. And they could not predict 5 hours ahead,
The FAGAWE Indians had a full proof way to tell the weather. But it was lost as they were.
But all those Charts and graphs sure do look pretty
It was definitely not crying wolf!! If this storm had hit and caused damage or death and people were not prepared or aware, there would be a lot of angry people. The models and the meteorologists were spot on, minus the continual change in forecast. The cold front was right where it should have been and the coastal low tracked where it needed to. For NJ to get widespread accumulation that cold front needed to meet or beat the coastal low. The cold front slowed to a crawl and the coastal low intensified rapidly and took off! We had the moisture just not the cold air. No one can complain about not getting 18 inches of snow, tree damage and loss of electricity! Meanwhile, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts are getting there own beating right now.
As for next weekend, yes the models have hinted at a coastal storm for the last 2 runs. It is out in fantasy land and anyone who leads you to believe they know what is happening, probably tried to sell you a bridge to Africa too! It is something to watch, but way to early, what I call fantasy land, and is not even worth mentioning until there is model agreement and model trend as well as atmospheric conditions that agree with the models!
whs In all due respect If, Woulda. Mightof, Only if. My point is to many times they are dead wrong. That leads to Dought and not giving credance to what they predict or forcast. Its Fact that many did not head or belive sandy was as bad as predicted. Or thought the damage inflected would happen. As the case for many Hurricanes, Noreasters that were predicted then passed by.or pettered out. You are a Learnered one about the weather. I only go by what I see and experance.
Do you really think all the people that stayed and were caught that it was just off guard. Most never thought it would happen or to be as bad as Predicted. Thanks for all your time and posting it makes for good reading and study. Bill
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Have 1 foot now and coming down heavy in Oakland, NJ (North West Bergen County)
Good night and all be safe.
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slt Good morning from Marlboro, News 12 NJ hit the nail on the head with a 6 time revised forecast. As of 6:22am 8" so far and flurries possible 1-2 more ?? Daughter left and got to work RT 520- 18 clear no problems . No hurry to get snowblower going, Stay safe and pace your self no need for anyone else to have heart problems. ChrisL get We'll t^ Bill
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We ended up with about 12"
Guess it's a clean up day and get ready for the next storm on Tuesday. t^
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Looks like 12" here.....time to dig out..
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Ended up with 9" here in Middletown. Heading out to start cleaning the driveway.
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We have a wopping 41/2 inches. Not even going to take the snow blower out for this one.
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We got about 5-6 inches here. I didn't go out and measure. More than I expected!
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We got a little over 4 here. Went out to get rid of the snow on the driveway and it was almost gone just had to push some off to the sides. GREAT...
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Yeah, it is melting fast! Most of it should be gone by tomorrow with 42 degree highs and whatever is left over Monday and Tuesday will take care of with rain and high 40's! Of course the localized flooding should be fun ::).
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They use a Farm Tractor on my roads Casola Bros. they do the best job. thie is second Pass one at 1:30am then 8:am. And photo of 1997 Pontiac almost 80,000 on it.
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for me it was anywhere from 6-7 to 10-12 inches along the rte 78 corridor. Blizzard, I never saw it. basically a solid 8" snow storm that used to be typical for here. only thing that really got me was the "timing" of when everything was going to start...snow to rain, rain to snow, "blizzard" etc. that part was driving me nuts and causing me a giant headache.